The E.U's vaccination drive has been progressing much slower than expected, and it is likely that the J&J shot will help to speed up inoculation efforts considerably. The E.U has entered into a firm order for 200 million doses of the vaccine, and has an option for 200 million additional doses. Separately, the vaccine received approval from E.U regulators in mid-March and Johnson & Johnson says that it is likely to start delivering doses to the bloc starting from April 19. A successful bridging study should enable J&J to deploy its one-dose shot locally. India, which has a population of over 1.3 billion people, is facing a shortage of vaccines just as Covid-19 cases in the country soar. Bridging trials are supplementary clinical studies performed in a new country in order to gather data on efficacy, safety, and dose regimen based on the regional demographics. J&J plans to conduct a bridging study for its Covid-19 vaccine in India shortly.
This likely means that the benefits of the vaccine should outweigh a very small risk of severe adverse effects. In comparison, J&J shipped about 20 million doses of the shot to the U.S. There have been only four reported cases of serious blood clots. However, we think it's unlikely that this will impact the eventual rollout of the shot which was recently approved for use in the E.U. Separately, the European Union’s health agency is investigating reports that a few people developed serious blood clots after receiving J&J's Covid-19 vaccine in the U.S. That said, the company says that it is on track to deliver 100 million doses to the United States government by the end of May. is likely to stand at about 1.5 million doses, down from 11 million for last week. this week, as the company faces some manufacturing challenges. The supply of J&J's Covid-19 vaccine is expected to decline by about 85% in the U.S. While J&J pledged to sell its Covid vaccine on a not-for-profit basis through the current pandemic, it could potentially turn a profit from new vaccines and booster shots in the future. J&J has indicated that it was studying booster shots and new vaccines that might be needed to tackle evolving variants of the virus. Moreover, most experts think that Covid is likely to become endemic, and vaccine shots could become an annual occurrence, much like flu shots. For instance, South Africa is likely to rely heavily on the J&J shot, while the shot is also likely to be available in India in the coming months. We still think the J&J shot could do much of the heavy lifting in getting the global population, particularly in lower-income countries, inoculated against Covid-19, given its single-dose requirement and relatively easy storage. The global inoculation drive is still in the early stages, with just about 1.45 billion doses being administered globally per the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker - enough to fully vaccinate under 10% of the world's population.
That said, we still think the vaccine has a lot of room for scaling up internationally.
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